Impact of GST on Indian Economy
In recent times, India has been abuzz with criticism on its archaic taxation structure and there is push for a simpler, flat tax structure that will potentially do away with the complicated policy. As the next level policy reform in indirect taxation, Goods and services tax (GST) has taken a centre stage in this respect and is hoped to iron out the wrinkles in the existing tax system. Tax policies play an important role on the economy through their impact on both efficiency & equity and its high time India braced itself for a relook at the current status.
Historically, India has relied too much on indirect taxation because of political compulsions, an agrarian economy, low income levels and lack of infrastructure to track personal income. In order to simplify and rationalize indirect tax structures, government of India attempted various tax policy reforms at different points of time. While VAT was a welcome change during 2005, over the years, people have identified shortcomings in the structure while levying VAT both at Central level and State level. Also, CENVAT has the limitation of non-inclusion of several taxes such as VAT, ACD, surcharge etc. In the present state-level VAT scheme, there is a cascading effect on account of CENVAT element. Lastly, there is lack of integration of VAT on goods with tax on services at the state level and hence the cascading effect of service tax.
To address such issues cited above, a comprehensive tax reform (GST is a part) having an extensive base to kick-start the applicability of an efficient and harmonized consumption tax system has been proposed. While the lower house has cleared the passage of the bill, it’s still pending in the upper house. GST has been commonly accepted around the world and more than 140 countries have acknowledged the same which ranges between 15%- 20% in most of the countries. GST is a value added tax which will be levied on both goods and services (except for a list of exempted goods and services) at both the centre and state level (Central GST and State GST respectively). This is going to be one single tax which will be levied on the product or service which is being sold. In effect, multiple taxes like CENVAT, central sales tax, state sales tax, octroi etc. will be replaced by GST. This comprehensive tax will cover all stages during production to sale and will be levied only on the value added at each stage of the process. What will GST achieve as a policy reform measure?
Economic union of India: The debate about India as one republic union versus a federation of states will be put to rest. Goods can easily move across the country with diffused state boundaries and that will encourage businesses to focus on pan-India operations.
Simpler tax structure: By merging all levies on goods and services into one, GST acquires a very simple and transparent character with less paperwork and reduction in accounting complexities. A simple taxation regime can make the manufacturing sector more competitive and save both money and time.
Uniform tax regime: With only one or two tax rates across the supply chain as against multiple tax structure at present, state specific advantages/disadvantages are gone. This provides a fair play ground for all stakeholders and focus can be brought in to efficiency rather than vantage points.
Greater tax revenues: A simpler tax structure can bring about greater compliance, thus increasing the number of tax payers and in turn tax revenues for the government. By removing cascading effect, layers of taxes and simplifying structures, the GST would encourage compliance, which is also expected to widen the tax base.
Competitive pricing: A cursory look at the retail price of any product manufactured in India reveals that the total tax component is roughly 25-30% of the cost of the product. GST will effectively mean that the tax paid by the final consumer will come down in most cases and will help in boosting consumption, which is again beneficial to companies.
Push to exports: With fall in production cost in domestic market, the competitiveness of Indian goods in international market will increase. This bodes well for exporters, who compete with global manufacturers which operate on very different cost structures.
Keeping all these potential benefits in account, a study by the National Council of Applied Economic Research says that GST will boost India’s GDP growth by anywhere around 0.9% to 1.7% and virtually every media report cites expert opinion to potentially add up to 2% to India’s GDP.
However, there are sticky issues like taxation on inter-state services, stock transfers, integration of few central & state taxes etc. which need attention before India makes a decisive move.
In terms of growth, price, current account and budget balance, the macroeconomic impact of a change to the introduction of the GST will be significant. With a burgeoning services sector and a high economic growth trajectory that India is in today, a shift in income based tax to consumption based tax is going to provide substantial fillip to source of revenue. Of course, there will be a short lived limited price impact on the larger economy with introduction of GST. However, a larger impact is expected on the administrative compliance cost of GST which is likely to increase tax revenue from the “parallel” or “black” economy. In an era where the administration is treading cautiously on fiscal deficit management, a complete failure to implement GST would result in surging deficit to around 4-4.2% during FY16-17 from 3.99% today. So the question that all of us should ponder over is how soon we can bring in GST than whether we should.
-Author Rahul Garg
-source:- http://retail.economictimes.indiatimes. com/re-tales/impact-of-gst-on-indian-economy/1525